Ron Gerlitz, Director of aChord:
Time and again, we hear in public discourse that “after October 7th, no one in Israel will agree to the establishment of a Palestinian state.” The reality, however, is quite the opposite and support has also actually been growing significantly in the past month. Here are the facts:
For over six months, our research at aChord has consistently shown that nearly half of the Israeli public supports a regional-political-security framework that includes an agreement to establish a Palestinian state. Our studies have found that around 45-50% of Israelis believe that Israel should agree to a settlement described as follows: “A U.S.-backed political-security agreement which includes agreeing to the establishment of a Palestinian state in exchange for recognition of the state of Israel by Arab states and normalization agreements between Israel and Arab states.” Full research links are in the comments.
In the past few weeks, following Trump’s election and his entry into office, we have seen—both in our latest research at aChord and in a study by Agam Research Institute—a significant increase in support for this regional framework, which includes the establishment of a Palestinian state.
In our latest aChord study, conducted just under two weeks ago (January 20-21), we found that a majority of the Israeli public (60%) prefers that Trump promote a political-security agreement that includes normalization with Arab states, including Saudi Arabia, and agreeing to establish a Palestinian state. This is compared to 31% who preferred that he pursue full annexation of the West Bank. Notably, despite the option to abstain, 60% actively chose to support this framework rather than avoid taking a stance. Among opposition voters (see the left circle in the chart), there is an overwhelming consensus—86% support this framework. Full research links are in the comments.
A study by the Agam Research Institute, conducted in early January, posed the following question: “If U.S. President Trump were to promote a comprehensive political deal that includes normalization and a regional defense alliance between Israel, Saudi Arabia, and other Arab states; U.S. security and economic guarantees for Israel; and in return, Israel would withdraw from parts of Gaza and agree to the establishment of a Palestinian state in Palestinian territories under new leadership unaffiliated with terrorist organizations—how should Israel respond?” The results showed that 51% of the Jewish public supports this framework. This suggests, roughly estimated, that overall support among the Israeli public is around 60%, given that the vast majority of the Arab public supports it. These findings align with our research at aChord. A screenshot of this finding from the Agam study is in the comments.
The bottom line is: Before Trump’s election, the Israeli public was divided on whether to support a regional-political-security agreement that includes the establishment of a Palestinian state. But the Trump effect has brought about a significant shift—now, half of the Jewish public, an overwhelming majority of the democratic-liberal camp, and a clear majority of Israeli society as a whole support this approach.
Professor Eran Halperin reflected on these findings, stating:
“Public opinion in Israel regarding the Palestinian issue over the past year is far more complex than many assume. On the one hand, naturally, there has been a sharp shift toward extremism, anger, and deep mistrust of the Palestinians and the very idea of peace. On the other hand, there is pragmatism and a growing sense of urgency for a solution. And from the moment Trump has backed the idea of a regional agreement—including a pathway to a Palestinian state—we see a dramatic surge in support for this framework.”
Take note, leaders of the democratic-liberal camp in Israel.
The article above analyzes aChord research from January 20-21. The findings described are in slide 21 in the following link: